[Editorial] Opinion polls
One of the many surprises in the June 2 local elections was the significant gap between the figures in the pre-election opinion polls and the actual results of the voting across the country. In the hotly contested metropolitan and provincial constituencies, predictions based on telephone queries gave an edge of 10 to 20 percentage points mostly in favor of the ruling Grand National Party candidates. The actual election results gave comfortable victories of the main opposition Democratic Party or a close chase by them.
The election law prohibits poll-takers from publicizing the results of their surveys during the week before the election, in order not to have individual voters influenced by the supposed popularity rates of candidates. The “mistaken” pollsters now argue that the people’s minds changed so quickly during the final campaign period particularly under the volatile issues of the sinking of the patrol craft Cheonan, Sejong City and the "four rivers" project.
Some liberal commentators even claim now that the considerable inaccuracies were caused by the “high-handed” style of the Lee Myung-bak administration which suppressed free expression of opinions by citizens. Social psychiatrists on the other hand cite the possibility of “deliberate lying” by interviewees especially when competition is tight in their districts.
If these observations had any amount of truth, we also find some faults in the current methods of surveying by media organizations collaborating with research firms. Their surveyors approach random samples taken from phone books, mostly at daytime when it is more likely that housewives or older people receive the calls. They tend to be more conservative in their political inclinations, hence the polls gave higher popularity ratings to ruling party candidates.
The latest election had more participation by the younger generation, the more mobile group relying entirely on mobile handsets, but their opinions seem to have not been correctly reflected in the surveys. Just as the ruling party lost many votes because of their complacency, accurate predictions were compromised as poll-takers failed to update their method of gathering opinions
